Kenya faces acute climate vulnerabilities, with shifting weather patterns intensifying droughts, floods, and ecosystem degradation. Over 80% of the country is arid or semi-arid, with livelihoods dependent on rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism. The 2020–2023 drought, the worst in 40 years left 4.4 million people food-insecure and killed 2.5 million livestock. Erratic rainfall also fuels flash floods, especially in urban centres like Nairobi.

Temperatures have risen ~1.1°C since 1960, accelerating glacier loss on Mount Kenya (70% vanished since 1980) and altering water supplies. Lake Victoria’s record-high 2020 water levels displaced 400,000 people. Rising Indian Ocean temperatures threaten coastal fisheries and coral reefs, while erratic rains undermine hydropower (45% of energy mix), causing recurring electricity shortages.

Climate change costs Kenya 3–5% of GDP annually. Crop yields for staples like maize could fall up to 25% by 2050 under high-emission scenarios worsening food insecurity. Nearly all of Kenya’s disasters are climate-related, driven by intensifying droughts, floods, and erratic rainfall.

Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0) prioritises adaptation, allocating 80% of climate spending to resilience in agriculture and water systems. The Climate Change Act (2023) mandates integration of climate action across sectors, while a 10-year plan aims to achieve 30% forest cover by 2032. The government also targets 100% renewable energy by 2030.

Climate Finance Gaps

But funding gaps persist. Kenya's NDC 3.0 outlines a climate action plan requiring approximately US$62 billion by 2030, with 13% ($8.06 billion) expected from domestic sources and 87% (US$53.94 billion) dependent on international support.

Over 80% of current climate finance comes from international partners, such as the Green Climate Fund and the World Bank. Kenya’s green bond framework and National Climate Change Fund signal efforts to boost domestic resources, but progress is slow.

Only 25% of current finance supports adaptation, despite Kenya’s vulnerability. Barriers include complex funding processes, reliance on debt, and low private sector participation, currently just 8% of total climate finance.

Emerging Solutions

Innovative approaches are emerging, including blended finance models, carbon credit schemes, and county-level climate funds. But bridging the US$54 billion gap will require faster fund access, de-risking private investment, and scaling locally driven adaptation. To aid this, Kenya is taking part in the Parliamentarians for Climate Finance initiative. It’s climate resilience hinges on transforming pledges into actionable investments while balancing equity and fiscal sustainability.